Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 0.345037 0.402151 0.464194 0.536399 0.617908 0.706858 0.811052
2025-05-04 0.266862 0.341482 0.428866 0.537995 0.669810 0.823025 1.013663
2025-05-11 0.208393 0.292006 0.397223 0.537576 0.717894 0.939619 1.230438
2025-05-18 0.153247 0.236303 0.348922 0.509525 0.728857 1.013674 1.406473
2025-05-25 0.110143 0.187910 0.301864 0.475753 0.728041 1.073458 1.573171
2025-06-01 0.083833 0.158129 0.275558 0.466678 0.760031 1.181556 1.818130
2025-06-08 0.063129 0.132200 0.250162 0.454910 0.786966 1.286740 2.072736
2025-06-15 0.051123 0.118220 0.241380 0.468046 0.854144 1.459359 2.445161
2025-06-22 0.037047 0.096152 0.213952 0.445382 0.861317 1.542406 2.693832
2025-06-29 0.027532 0.080262 0.194241 0.432678 0.883419 1.651984 2.996240
2025-07-06 0.020150 0.066406 0.175120 0.417390 0.898804 1.752590 3.295429
2025-07-13 0.016191 0.059568 0.169290 0.427455 0.962480 1.942854 3.762581
2025-07-20 0.012193 0.051038 0.157934 0.425226 1.005413 2.106935 4.211286
2025-07-27 0.009488 0.045068 0.151193 0.432085 1.068258 2.315505 4.760570
2025-08-03 0.007286 0.039518 0.143916 0.436410 1.127135 2.524244 5.331958
2025-08-10 0.004999 0.031940 0.128253 0.416672 1.131275 2.628706 5.723063
2025-08-17 0.003268 0.025104 0.112000 0.391191 1.118222 2.697724 6.054888
2025-08-24 0.002337 0.021234 0.103881 0.385956 1.151940 2.866779 6.597045
2025-08-31 0.001628 0.017746 0.095545 0.377952 1.177762 3.022380 7.127312
2025-09-07 0.001279 0.016199 0.094116 0.390909 1.259103 3.307297 7.944320
2025-09-14 0.000820 0.012965 0.083906 0.372850 1.256366 3.405618 8.385173
2025-09-21 0.000544 0.010717 0.076784 0.363057 1.274322 3.552902 8.941723
2025-09-28 0.000347 0.008726 0.069605 0.350804 1.283223 3.679989 9.465575